{"id":11301,"date":"2019-03-27T23:09:00","date_gmt":"2019-03-28T06:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nursemk.wpengine.com\/shortage-surplus-how-keep-tabs-nursing-workforce-projections\/"},"modified":"2022-03-02T14:52:28","modified_gmt":"2022-03-02T19:52:28","slug":"shortage-surplus-how-keep-tabs-nursing-workforce-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nurse.com\/solutions\/blog\/shortage-surplus-how-keep-tabs-nursing-workforce-projections","title":{"rendered":"Shortage or Surplus? How To Keep Tabs on Nursing Workforce Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Just wait until all the nurse baby boomers retire.<\/h2>\n

That was the warning cry about the nursing workforce when reports such as \u201cNursing: Supply, Demand and Shortages through 2020\u201d by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce predicted 1.6 million job openings back in 2015.<\/a><\/p>\n

With a shortfall of nursing educators<\/a>, there was loud concern about how the nursing workforce would keep up with the massive demand.<\/p>\n

Four years later, the news is mixed about just how dire the shortage will be \u2013 or even if there will be a shortage at all.<\/p>\n

Monitor nursing workforce trends<\/h3>\n

Montana State University College of Nursing Professor Peter Buerhaus,\u00a0PhD, RN, FAAN, is considered a pre-eminent nursing workforce expert. When Buerhaus talks about nursing\u2019s future, people listen.<\/p>\n

For all his expertise, even Buerhaus noted that \u201cprojecting the supply of nurses is not for the faint-hearted,\u201d according to the Campaign for Action<\/a>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Buerhaus was among the many observers saying in the early 2000s a shortage would be imminent and impactful. He mentioned at the time that the U.S. would face a shortfall of 500,000 nurses by 2020.<\/p>\n

Aggressive nursing initiatives to promote the profession have been one key factor in a turnaround in those numbers.<\/p>\n

In late 2017, Buerhaus told the Campaign for Action that RN supply was in balance and a nationwide surplus of about 300,000 nurses could occur by 2030.<\/p>\n

But he urged caution because of a number of rapidly changing factors, such as baby boomer nurses retiring. \u201cThere are way too many uncertainties that could blow any projected surplus away,\u201d he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

According to the latest BLS projections<\/a>, RN employment is projected to grow 15% from 2016 to 2026. An increase in supply of new nurses, however, has led to more competition for RN jobs in some parts of the nation.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

A matter of geography<\/h3>\n

According to many observers, where you live will depend on the impact <\/a>nurses and recruiters feel from the nursing workforce roller coaster.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe shortage will not hit all areas the same,\u201d Arizona State University Clinical Assistant Professor Heidi Sanborn, DNP, RN, CNE, told HealthLeaders Media<\/a>. \u201cSome states are predicted to have a glut of nurses, so there will be no shortages at all. In some states, it is very regional.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

According to the July 2017 federal report Supply and Demand Projections of the Nursing Workforce: 2014-2030<\/a>, substantial variation is ahead across the country.<\/p>\n